The efforts of a well-established fuel poverty network in Northern Ireland, credited with raising the general energy efficiency level of local housing, have still been overtaken by rising fuel prices.

The recent history of fuel poverty in Northern Ireland had been one of significant progress, according to many of the organisations active in this area. The most recent official figures, dating from the Northern Ireland Housing Executive's 2004 interim house condition survey, showed the number of households in fuel poverty falling from 33.3% in 2001 to 23.9% three years later, to stand at just over 150,000.

That, of course, was before the relentless rise in energy prices that have followed ever since. The general assumption is that fuel price increases have now cancelled out and overtaken these gains.

'No-one has a clear picture of the current state of affairs,' says John McMullan, chair of the Northern Ireland Fuel Poverty Advisory Group (NIFPAG). 'There is a pressing need to understand the landscape of fuel poverty in Northern Ireland, as the research has not been done. We need a model to show how the three dynamics of fuel poverty - energy efficiency, fuel costs and income levels - are interacting.'

The findings of an interim 2006 house condition survey are expected to be published in the near future and will help bring the picture up to date. In the meantime, one attempt by National Energy Action to quantify the number of NI households driven into fuel poverty as a direct result of rising prices since 2004 put the figure at around 184,000 additional households.

Despite the shadow cast by fuel prices, the non-governmental NIFPAG regards the partnership arrangements for agencies working with fuel poverty as relatively advanced, particularly on the energy efficiency front. This is helped by the fact that the network of key stakeholders in Northern Ireland is small: few energy suppliers, a unitary housing authority and a dedicated Inter Departmental Group on Fuel Poverty (IDGFP) set up by NI ministers in recognition that fuel poverty is a cross-departmental issue.

The full extent of the fuel poverty effort in Northern Ireland is catalogued in two landmark documents published in the summer: the first annual report from the IDGFP and another first annual report from the NIFPAG, regarded as the NI administration's primary advisor.

Both documents can be read as progress reports on the Department for Social Development's Northern Ireland Fuel Poverty Strategy, which set the agenda for action in November 2004 and confirmed the targets of eliminating fuel poverty in vulnerable households by 2010 and in non-vulnerable households by 2016.

One of the main themes emerging from NIFPAG report is that significant investment has been made in energy efficiency improvements, to the extent that the positive effects are increasingly undermined by the effects of escalating fuel prices and the failure of income levels to keep up.

The latest energy efficiency figures from the 2004 Interim HCS show that 97% of homes in Northern Ireland have full central heating (dominated by oil-fuelled systems at 65%), almost 78% of dwellings have some form of wall insulation, almost 95% have loft insulation and 80% have either full or partial double glazing.

So while energy efficiency investment is still recognised as a key factor in any fuel poverty programme, NIFPAG decided this summer to acknowledge that even if all of Northern Ireland's housing stock were brought to an acceptable level of energy efficiency, an estimated 17% of households would remain in fuel poverty as a result of higher energy costs and low incomes.

Accordingly, many of NIFPAG's recommendations are concerned with future government actions to control fuel costs (a windfall tax on off-shore producers and the development of social tariffs are two suggestions) and to develop initiatives focussing on low incomes, benefit advice and take-up and the linking of health checks to the provision of advice.

'The emerging issue is the growing number of low earners facing fuel poverty. We have programmes in place for those on benefits and those in social housing, but not for those in work on low earnings. The system needs to be adjusted to accommodate them,' says McMullen.

However, one demographic shift was singled out for attention, namely the higher incidence of fuel poverty in rural areas. The 2004 housing survey figures showed that fuel poverty was no longer evenly spread, as earlier surveys had found, but had become markedly higher in rural areas (33%) than urban areas (20%).

Top of the list of NIFPAG recommendations this summer was a call for all programmes to be adjusted to address the increase in rural fuel poverty and for consideration to be given to a separate initiative to focus on isolated rural properties.

The Inter Departmental Group reported that over £110m has been allocated to schemes relating directly to fuel poverty in 2005-06 (though £50m of this is taken up by Winter Fuel Payments). Next year will see winners and losers.

The DSD's main fuel programme remains the Warm Homes and Warm Homes Plus schemes (the Plus version can provide full central heating systems for over 60s in receipt of benefits). This is the channel for funding energy efficiency improvements in the owner-occupied and private rented sectors, which focuses on insulation measures. The funding for 2006-07 will rise from this year's £14.75m to £20.35m.

Fuel Poverty Partnership funding, various community-based schemes that can be accessed by those not necessarily in receipt of benefits, will also be boosted from £300,000 to £500,000 next year.

Other key programmes include those administered by Northern Ireland Electricity (NIE) through the Energy Efficiency Levy Programme. By the end of March this year, NIE had implemented 26 energy efficiency schemes aimed at reducing both CO2 emissions and fuel poverty. Many of these have been developed to benefit the most vulnerable customers through 'whole house' solutions and are delivered through a range of partner organisations - these schemes are audited by the Energy Saving Trust.

Looking to the future, a new £1.35m Environment and Renewable Energy Fund will trial the installation of renewable technologies in fuel poor households.

At the same time, expenditure by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive on heating and improvement programmes will fall sharply from £30.75m to £22.9m next year. However this is a reflection of the latest figures for the social housing sector, which found that only 1.2% of properties fail to meet the thermal comfort element of the Decent Homes standard.

For the first annual report from The Inter-Departmental Group on Fuel Poverty (IDGFP) click here.

For The Northern Ireland Fuel Poverty Advisory Group's First Annual Report: Tackling Fuel Poverty: A Partnership Approach, click here.